SUSTAINABLE DE-GROWTH AND RE-GROWTH

Seems we have a new period of global history rapidly approaching that will necessitate policies of sustainable de-growth. First, economic de-globalization will occur with the advent of peak oil. Some of it was foreshadowed a couple years ago when gasoline prices shot up to $4 and furniture plants moved back to North Carolina to take advantage of the "neighborhood effect" of locating production near markets so as to save on transportation costs that became too high. This should serve as harbinger of coming systemic changes.

Second, it seems to me, the comparative advantage of production that takes place within a global system of production and consumption is economically viable only in an era of cheap oil. Whether oil is cheap or not, a global system of comparative advantage depends on large multinational corporations that do not owe allegiance to any localized population. In terms of food production, this is the worse system possible, in that the supply chains are insecure economically, ecologically, and politically. Peak oil will force a re-localization of food production (an agricultural neighborhood effect). A world of spiraling risk and disruption will re-energize a von Thunen-like rationalization of the peri- and even intra-urban land-use system (a literal neighborhood effect) for food production. Consumption (in terms of food stuffs) would not necessarily decrease, but "consumption," especially in terms of energy costs, would. This is exactly what sustainable de-growth calls for.

It is less easy to see a de-globalization and re-localization of manufacturing because so many products are not truly necessary. Perhaps an array of 81 different lamps (or name any consumer item) to choose from will be something only to be remembered. However, for many decades it has been possible to de-centralize manufacturing (exactly what Kropotkin called for in the very early 20th century in his "Fields, Factories, and Workshops Tomorrow").

On both theoretical and practical grounds there is much good to say about de-centralization, but peak oil, I believe, will force the issue. When (and, of course, if) that happens, the bio-regionalists and "watershed economics" will be all the rage.

BIG SOCIETAL CHANGES LOOMING

Well, well, a finite resource upon which our civilization has been based (petroleum) has finally caught up with our profligate system of transportation (and diet) and because of this the way we have designed cities. This was all foreseen several decades ago. As I have been telling my students for years, when they asked about oil running out, that oil will not run out--but our money to pay for it will. We can purchase all the gasoline we desire at $4 and on up to $8 or even $15 per gallon, when peak oil hits.

The structure of our cities will have to change. Kiss goodbye the suburbs, built on cheap--subsidized!--transportation in the form of an orgy of public highway construction. Already suburban housing prices are falling. We will simply have to live closer to where we work. Everything must take place closer to where we live.

Think of food production. Cities will again be ringed by farm production like they were before WWI. Is it rational that most of my food is imported from California across the continent or Chile thousands of miles away? Instead of California almonds, I can consume locally produced pecans. Now perhaps von Thunen's model (1826) of the spatial structure of agriculture production around cities will again become a model that edges closer to reality. Local food production and home gardens will flourish, even tomatoes grown in pots.

Fortunately, expertise and experience exists in every city. America is not devoid of thinking people (even if most people do not analyze their own lifeways). There are people who have been living and modeling the lifestyle of the future which is now arriving. One of these lifeways is vegetarian eating habits. We have been saying this for many years that a meat-based diet is unsustainable. Whether or not you consider the ethical and environmental ramifications of your dietary choices, your pocketbook will soon dictate your diet.

A side issue, but one that will prove to be crucial in coming decades, is that, due to global climate changes, agricultural zones will likely shift northward. Possibly we here on the Mississippi Gulf Coast can begin to produce mangoes and bananas and other tropical fruits. What can your bioregion grow?

Speaking of bioregions, the bioregionalists have also been saying for decades that society should conform to the exigencies of the natural region in which each is located.

One of my messages here is that among us are the ideas and expertise and even models of actual people who have been living according to how the world would soon become. That time is soon, even now.